Concussions are unpredictable.
It’s important that we get that out of the way before diving into any sort of fantasy analysis. Yes, research on the subject has grown by leaps and bounds over the past few years. Medical professionals are far more accurate in diagnosing concussions on the gridiron, and the old-school machismo to just “rub some dirt on it” is slowly chipping away — but at the end of the day, there is still a lot we don’t know about concussions. Each one needs to be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. Even if a player has a history of concussions (*ahem*Reed*ahem*), you can’t rely on that data with a high degree of certainty when projecting the recovery time for subsequent instances.
Moral of the story: All we can do as fantasy owners is take what we know and hedge our bets.
Get it? Got it? Good.
*Deep exhale* Okay, so…let’s talk specifically about JR. After suffering an in-game concussion in week 5 (his 6th reported in 5 years), Reed hid it from the team to finish the game, and didn’t admit having symptoms until the following Wednesday. Since then, he’s missed every practice, except one this past Wednesday, where he had limited participation in individual, non-contact drills.
The longer he’s out, the more cause for concern. So what should fantasy owners do with Jordan Reed? Personally, I think you’re stuck. Here’s why.
Selling Reed: Now, I should add this caveat. Every fantasy commodity has a price. No one is untouchable (yes, even the guy you were just thinking about). So if I own Jordan Reed and someone is willing to give me a top-20 player that I can immediately plug into my starting lineup, then sure. Pull the trigger.
But that’s not going to happen.
Any offer you get for Jordan Reed right now is going to be low-balled. And rightfully so. There’s a real possibility that his career is over (I repeat: 6 concussions reported in 5 years; there are rumors that he may have had others that went unreported). Reed has already been ruled out for week 7. So IF you want to pull the rip cord, your best course of action is to wait until he’s healthy and back to his normal, awesome self — which may or may not happen.
Buying Reed: When #86 is on the field, he is capable of dropping monster stat lines. There are less than a handful of TEs you can say that about. Translation: he’s a weekly positional advantage and his owner isn’t going to just give him away — that is, unless you’re comfortable paying up for a guy who has so many red flags that he could open a store…like a flag store…that only sells red flags…never mind.
This is a situation best avoided. There are better trade targets with a lower asking price and a safer ROI.
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