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NFL Week 9 Start/Sits

Drew Lannin

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We’ve had some of our first fantasy relevant trades since last week.  Emmanuel Sanders made his presence known early, while Sanu disappointed anyone who trusted him.  In a bit of a surprise move, the Cardinals traded for Kenyan Drake.  It’s yet to be known how severe the injuries of David Johnson and Chase Edmonds are, but we have to assume at least one of them is out for a prolonged time.  As an aside, I would definitely stay away from whatever patchwork backfield the Cardinals put together against the 49ers on Thursday night.

I’m likely stating the obvious here, but if you’re lucky enough to have the Patriots D, keep rolling them out.  I realize it seems like a no-brainer, but I’ve seen plenty of people who stashed a lesser D with a great matchup such as Jets vs Dolphins and are trying to decide between the two.  I would rather trust the Patriots D to continue their dominance, than rely on lesser teams even if their matchup is incredible.

Byes this week: Bengals, Falcons, Rams, Saints

QUARTERBACK

Start of the Week:  Matthew Stafford at Raiders:  Move over Matty Ice, Fratt Stafford is here to chug beer and throw touchdowns and he’s all out of beer.  I’m old enough to remember when everyone was sure Lions OC Darrell Bevell would only run the ball and Stafford wouldn’t be fantasy relevant.  Contrary to that popular pre-season belief, the Lions have passed on 58.59% of plays which ranks 18th in the league.  With this being the case and Stafford playing his best since the Megatron days, Stafford is coming in as the 10th ranked QB on the season.  While he did struggle against some better defenses this year, he beat up on lesser ones he’s faced.  Look for him to continue his hot streak vs the lowly pass D of the Raiders.

Starts

Sam Darnold at Dolphins: I’m about as spooked starting Darnold as he is playing against the Pats.  The ghosts of Darnold’s past haunt us anytime we commit to starting him.  A lot must fall into place for fantasy players to consider starting him.  This happens to be one of those weeks as Darnold plays against the Dolphins.  It’s possible you stashed Darnold ahead of his upcoming soft schedule the same way people did with the Jets D.  If that’s the case, it’s possible you have a decision to make between two QBs.  I would start Darnold over:

Dak Prescott at Giants: Dak is back in week 9, coming off a bye, against a secondary that makes everyone they face look good.  Furthermore, Daniel Jones has shown he can at the very least be competent enough to make a game out of this.  What’s not to love here?  

Sits

Carson Wentz at Chicago:  It seems it’s been an eternity since Wentz was an MVP candidate and part of a Superbowl roster behind Foles, while injured.  Now, Wentz is struggling and Foles is the one who is injured.  Despite questionable play at times, Wentz isn’t entirely to blame for the Eagles, woes.  Despite having one of the deepest rosters in the league, the Eagles have suffered enough injuries to field their own injured all-star team.  Wentz’s schedule has been brutal as well, with this current stretch being especially tough.  Things should open up for him down the road, but for now he’s too hard to trust against a stingy Bears pass D in Chicago.

Kyler Murray at 49ers:  Kyler has lived up to the hype he was getting from the fantast community early in the pre-season.  The caveat though, is he has only performed very well against lesser defenses, while struggling against better units.  Of course, this is to be expected from a rookie QB.  He’s on quite the cold streak lately, failing to even reach double digits the past two weeks.  Unfortunately, he likely won’t turn things around this week against one of the best defenses in the league.  Facing the 49ers is bad enough, but facing them on a short week, with no semblance of a run game available spells trouble for Kyler.

Sleeper

Gardner Minshew: Minshew mania has been a great time for everyone other than the Jags’ opponents.  Despite not playing in the first game until after Foles’ injury, Minshew comes into this game as the 12th ranked QB in the league.  Something we all definitely saw coming.  Minshew gets a great matchup vs a Texans defense missing most of their starting secondary and Watt.

RUNNING BACK

Start of the Week: Dalvin Cook/Alexander Mattison at Chiefs:  Honestly, I might as well just rename this section the “RBs vs Chiefs this week.” I can’t emphasize enough just how bad the Chiefs are vs the run.  Normally, I avoid having top-tier players such as Cook in my recommends as it’s obvious to start him every week and nobody needs to be told that.  More of the point of this, is that Mattison could easily be a high end bye week fill in this week.  The Vikings love running the ball and use both running backs plenty, so they each have immense upside against a run D more porous than a sponge.

Starts

Tevin Coleman vs Cardinals: The 49ers offense feels as though it’s 75% made up of running backs with a bit of Kittle sprinkled in.  Kyle Shanahan is undoubtedly a genius at designing running plays.  Somewhere, an old coach sheds a tear at how established the run is in San Francisco.  Amazingly, despite the seemingly endless supply of RBs on this team, Coleman is the only one coming into this game healthy.  Well, as healthy as an NFL RB can be 9 weeks into the season on short rest.  Arizona was absolutely gashed by Latavius Murray last week, so expect Coleman to have similar results.

Derrick Henry at Panthers: Fun fact: Derrick Henry’s last 7 touchdowns as of week 7 were in order: 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, 1, and (you guessed it) 1 yard.  I wasn’t a believer in Henry at all coming into this season.  He almost never catches passes and last year he was awful until the very end of the season.  He’s proved me wrong this year and while his incredible streak of short touchdowns is ripe for regression, he gets more than enough work to produce and gets a better matchup than last week.

Sits

David Montgomery vs Eagles:  Matt Nagy told us he isn’t stupid 2 weeks ago, then made sure to tell everyone how right he was once again after more questionable calls this past week.  One of the more egregious mistakes to me, is the way he uses Montgomery.  Granted, film will show you that Montgomery is far from perfect, but given the right opportunities, he should be able to prosper like he did last week.  Unfortunately, this Bears offense other than Allen Robinson is just completely unpredictable and massively underperforming under the guidance of a supposed offensively minded coach.  The Eagles D is incredible against the run, while being one of the worst vs the pass, so this doesn’t look to be a repeat of last week’s explosion for Montgomery.

Mark Ingram vs Patriots: The most compelling matchup of the week is the Baltimore offense vs the Patriots D.  While the Ravens are undoubtedly the best offense the Patriots have faced by far this year, I won’t believe any offense will do much of anything against them until I see it.  Maybe Lamar Jackson can make something happen against the Patriots, but I’m not counting on Ingram to be the one to get much done.   Especially when this game is in Foxboro.

Sleeper

Mark Walton vs Jets:  I’ll be honest, I’m pretty scared recommending anyone from the Dolphins.  Mark is definitely the first and maybe the last Dolphins player that will appear in a start/sleeper section from me, but their schedule is incredibly easy coming up, so who knows.  The Jets are only slightly better than the Dolphins, just traded one of their best run stopping Dlineman, and Kenyan Drake’s departure frees up more touched for Walton.  He’s not exactly exciting, but you could do worse for a bye week fill in.

WIDE RECEIVER

Start of the Week: Allen Robinson at Eagles:    As mentioned above, Allen Robinson is pretty much the only useful player on the Bears offense.  The Eagles’ secondary is basically non-existent and Robinson is playing as well as almost any other receiver in the league.  If only he could have a real QB for once in his football career.  

Starts

Michael Gallup at Giants: Gallup has been a bit quiet since his fast start to the season, but he gets a prime chance to get things right again.  Coming off a bye, against a division rival on primetime, look for Gallup to be a high-end WR2 in this game.

DJ Chark vs Texans: Well, if we’re gonna start Minshew, we might as well be starting his top receiver as well.  The hottest thing since Baby Shark, DJ Chark is likely to be the waiver add of the year.  He’s on pace for 78 catches, 1,320 yards, and 12 TD.  Only 6 players have ever done this in their second year.  This list is: Calvin Johnson, Allen Robinson, A.J. Green, Odell Beckham, Larry Fitzgerald, and Randy Moss.  You may have heard of them.

Sits

Courtland Sutton vs Browns: Speaking of surprises this season, Courtland Sutton has been another player whose value far surpassed where he was taken.  Unfortunately, Flacco hurt his kneck and Drew Lock is still on IR.  Enter Brandon Allen.  Allen has been in the league for three years, been through waivers three times, claimed off of waivers twice, and started in an NFL game zero times.  This all adds up to too much uncertainty to be able to trust Sutton this week.

D.J. Moore vs Ten: Contrary to Chark and Sutton producing far above what it cost to get them, Moore has hardly lived up to the massive hype around him before the season.   While he has had some decent games, it’s been a tough time for him with an injured Can, decent backup in Allen, and CMC rightfully handling the ball constantly.  Moore has shown the ability to be efficient with the touches left over for him, but Allen is likely to struggle vs a tough Titans D, which means Moore is less in this case.

Sleeper

Michael Gallup at Giants: Gallup cooled down after a hot start to the season.  Part of it though, was a knee injury that sidelined him for a few weeks.  He’s since been back and while he hasn’t been as great since, the bye week should help him back to form.  In a primetime game vs a division rival, look for Gallup to be a WR2 with upside.

TIGHT END

Start

Greg Olsen vs Titans:  Olsen started the season looking better than ever.  Unfortunately, he fell back down to earth in the last 4 games.  While the Titans are a tough defense overall, they are weak against opposing tight ends.  Look for Olsen to get back on track this week.

Sit

Mark Andrews vs Patriots: Andrews has been a bright spot in an otherwise bleak position this season.  Especially because he was taken very late in drafts.  As one of Lamar’s favorite targets, he has produced well this year.  Unfortunately, he gets one of the worst matchups this week, along with Marquise Brown likely coming back to contend for targets.

D/St  

Starts

Panthers vs Titans

49ers vs Cardinals

Browns at Broncos

Bills vs Washington

Jets at Dolphins

Sits

Jaguars vs Houston

Steelers vs Colts

Vikings at Chiefs

Titans at Panthers

Texans at Jags

Drew Lannin is a nutritionist with a Bachelor's in Dietetics from Lincoln, Nebraska. He grew up watching Nebraska football and the Chiefs. He is currently finishing pre-reqs for a Masters in Genetic Counseling. He first started playing fantasy football after recommending Randy Moss to his dad during his rookie year. This lead to him being added as the co-commissioner to his dad's league, which started in 1984. He has been an avid fantasy player ever since, consuming as much data and articles as possible.

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Fantasy

2020 NFL Draft Guide w/ Injury Predictor

Jesse Morse M.D.

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Welcome! We are excited to present The 2020 Injury Draftguide, presented by The Fantasy Doctors and Sports Injury Predictor! This has been compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse and Mike Valverde.

This Draftguide will contain every piece of injury information you need to know about all the key players heading into the 2020 Fantasy Football season. There will be over 65 profiles, one profile for each player. The profiles will be comprised of tons of information to help you make the best decision whether or not you should draft a certain player.

Each profile will have 2 videos breaking down each player, one discussing their injuries, the other their performance and expectations (using PFF data) heading into 2020. Additionally there will be a review of the player’s injury history, the importance of these injuries as it pertains to future injuries, an injury ‘risk score’ (yes!), the player’s 2019 effectiveness (data review), complete player outlook as well as team stats to support the player’s outlook for 2020. Wow, that’s a lot of information for EACH player.

The profiles will help you answer important questions like:

How risky is this player heading into the 2020 NFL Season?

Is (insert player name here) fully recovered from his (insert injury here)?

How much will X injury in 2019 after this player in 2020 (from a Sports Medicine Doctor’s perspective)?

Can you give me a ‘Risk Score’ to compare the players to each other?

Is a certain player ‘Injury Prone?’

How well does this player project in 2020 based on new additions and 2019 performance?

Well guess what? I’m Dr. Jesse Morse, a Board-Certified Sports Medicine Physician, a member of The Fantasy Doctors, and I’ve written an all-inclusive Draftguide, along with some colleagues, to help you answer all of these questions and more.

We have collaborated with Sports Injury Predictor, whose massive NFL injury database provides us all the important details that are hard to find on the Internet. I see orthopedic and elite athletes during the day, and enjoy discussing and analyzing NFL players’ injuries at night and on the weekends! As an avid fantasy football player for over 2 decades myself, I know how to translate this into clear advice about whether or not to draft someone, or even start someone on a given week given the information that we know. I can help to cut through the medical mumbo-jumbo and provide a clear understanding of the injury, whether the player will be able to play, and how effective they will be on the field. Its like you have your own cheat sheet!

I’ve made this easy for you this year, you have 2 choices here. Either you purchase the whole draftguide, with over 65 player profiles or you decide you really only want one specific profile, and you buy just that one. Your choice!

You want a SAMPLE of one of the profile’s videos? Well, watch the videos below. Still not convinced? Keep scrolling down and get The Rashaad Penny profile for FREE!

Matthew Stafford injury video profile

Matthew Stafford performance video profile

Well, what are you waiting for? Join us NOW!

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Fantasy

[FREE] Draft Profile- Rashaad Penny

Jesse Morse M.D.

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Compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse & Mike Valverde

Rashaad Penny

Rashaad Armein Penny just turned 24 years old and was born in Norwalk, California. His older brother Elijhaa is a fullback for the Giants. Rashaad had a very productive senior season at his local high school rushing for 2,004 yards and 41 touchdowns on 216 carries. He also caught 21 passes for 665 yards and another 10 touchdowns. 51 touchdowns is a ridiculous season. He chose to play his college football at FBS San Diego State University over BCS schools Boise State and Colorado State.

His freshman year, 2014, Penny did not get any rushing attempts, finishing the season with only two. In his sophomore year, he played in 14 games, rushing 61 times for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns. He finally started to get more opportunities in his junior year, rushing 135 times for 1,005 yards and 11 touchdowns, adding 15 receptions for 224 yards and 3 more scores.

Finally in his senior year, 2017, Penny rushed 289 times for 2,248 yards, a very impressive 7.8 yards per carry and 23 touchdowns. He also caught 19 passes for 135 yards and 2 more tds.

Penny measured in at 5‘11“ tall and 220 pounds, running a 4.46-second 40-yard dash. The Seattle Seahawks chose Penny at the end of the first round in the 2018 NFL Draft. Penny played in 14 games as a rookie, rushing 85 times for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also caught nine passes for 75 yards as well, missing two games with a knee injury.

Hoping to form a tandem with Chris Carson heading into the 2019 season, Penny was not given as many rushing opportunities as many had hoped. He struggled with injuries, injuring his hamstring in practice ahead of week three, and ended up missing three games as a result. Then, unfortunately, in Week 14, Penny suffered a torn ACL ending his season, discussed here.

Unfortunately, running backs who suffer torn ACL‘s (especially if they do it in the NFL) do not have the best return rate, at least in their first season back. Look at Dalvin Cook‘s 2018 season, and then compare to his 2019 season. Everyone always wants to point out how dominant Adrian Peterson was after his return from his torn ACL. But it is important to note that Peterson is the exception and not the rule.

Most running backs struggle in the first year after tearing the ACL. I think this is a combination of physical and mental. Regaining confidence in this newly built ligament takes time. The knee simply doesn’t respond as well as before the injury.

Some athletes describe a little bit more wiggle or ‘play’ with the new ligament. As good as modern medicine is, the ligament is never as good as the original. It’s not as tight, strong, or as flexible.

With the demands of the ACL in the modern NFL as a running back, often, these athletes struggle with the confidence to be able to cut with the aggressiveness that they will need to be effective. Suffering a torn ACL is not a deathblow to a running back’s career, but there are examples of players that struggled to return to form, including Jamaal Charles (at the end of his career), Darren Sproles, and Bishop Sankey.

The jury is still out on Derrius Guice, and they will be out for Penny as well. While WRs, QBs, and defensive players return to a level similar to their pre-injury effectiveness, RBs often struggle to return to full form.

When the Seattle Seahawks chose Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, they never thought that their 2017 seventh-round decision, Chris Carson would outperform him. However, that has been the situation. Penny has also struggled with injuries.

Even through difficult times, Penny has been a stable running back. His season total of 370 yards on 65 attempts while averaging 5.26 yards per carry (3rd) and a 2.05 YAC (11th) among 52 running backs with 150 carries or more.

After a Carson fumble and an expanded role in Weeks 12 and 13, Penny would put up 14-129-1 and 15-74-1, but unfortunately, Week 14 put an end to any progressions he was making when he tore his ACL.

Now in 2020, Penny could see the PUP list to start the season. He is only 24-years old, so his injury return time could be less. Even if he does return before Week 1, he will not only have to battle Carson but Carlos Hyde and rookie DeeJay Dallas. Throw in Travis Homer for good measure.

The Seahawks offensive line isn’t much better than it has been over the last few seasons. They will have three new starters. BJ Finney, at the center position, will compete with Joey Hunt. Damien Lewis, a third-round decision out of LSU, will step in for DJ Fluker. Seattle did sign Brandon Shell from the Jets, and he will replace Germain Ifedi. They run a gap-power offense.

Even with Russell Wilson working his magic, the Seahawks like to focus on the run. Whoever has the ball in their hands should be successful. However, there are just too many road bumps in front of Penny to make him a high priority or even a low one when it comes to draft day.

Final Prognosis:

Sports Injury Predictor calculates that Penny has a 53.8% chance of injury in 2020, which translates to missing about one game.

My injury risk for him is significantly higher, a 7 out of 10. Penny may struggle with a lack of burst and confidence in his knee.

Currently being drafted as the RB58, there is a chance that Penny surprises this year, as his backfield mate Chris Carson is also coming back from an equally significant injury, a hip fracture. I (Dr. Morse) would not be surprised if the Seahawks turn to a more passing offense as a result of these injuries.

The ACL plays such a significant role in the lower legs’ mobility and running that so many other issues and injuries can develop as a result of the decreased strength, range of motion, and confidence.

Hamstring injuries, meniscal tears, and MCL sprains are not uncommon as a result of a reconstructed knee. Data demonstrates that Penny is still at an increased risk for a second torn ACL. Up until two years from injury, the data shows that he has a 9% chance of re-tear of his recently repaired/built ligament and a 21% chance of tearing the opposite ACL.

There’s simply too much risk in Penny in 2020 for me (Dr. Morse). I’d much rather roll the dice with names in his range like Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Darrynton Evans, and Damien Harris. Cross Penny’s name off your draft board, and save yourself the trouble.

At this point (June 22), Penny is the RB56 and 182nd player off the board overall. The translation is that he is an RB5 or basic dart throw. Keep an eye on when or if he can make it back before the start of the season. For the most part, I (Mike) would leave as waiver wire fodder.

Injury Risk: High, 7/10.

Injury Video Link: https://youtu.be/YXPhr8g29kY 

Performance Video Link: https://youtu.be/dR-EogvgAWQ 

Like what you see? GET DRADT GUIDE HERE

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2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Jesse Morse M.D.

Published

on

Welcome! We are excited to present The 2020 Injury Draftguide, presented by The Fantasy Doctors and Sports Injury Predictor! This has been compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse and Mike Valverde.

This Draftguide will contain every piece of injury information you need to know about all the key players heading into the 2020 Fantasy Football season. There will be over 65 profiles, one profile for each player. The profiles will be comprised of tons of information to help you make the best decision whether or not you should draft a certain player.

Each profile will have 2 videos breaking down each player, one discussing their injuries, the other their performance and expectations (using PFF data) heading into 2020. Additionally there will be a review of the player’s injury history, the importance of these injuries as it pertains to future injuries, an injury ‘risk score’ (yes!), the player’s 2019 effectiveness (data review), complete player outlook as well as team stats to support the player’s outlook for 2020. Wow, that’s a lot of information for EACH player.

The profiles will help you answer important questions like:

How risky is this player heading into the 2020 NFL Season?

Is (insert player name here) fully recovered from his (insert injury here)?

How much will X injury in 2019 after this player in 2020 (from a Sports Medicine Doctor’s perspective)?

Can you give me a ‘Risk Score’ to compare the players to each other?

Is a certain player ‘Injury Prone?’

How well does this player project in 2020 based on new additions and 2019 performance?

Well guess what? I’m Dr. Jesse Morse, a Board-Certified Sports Medicine Physician, a member of The Fantasy Doctors, and I’ve written an all-inclusive Draftguide, along with some colleagues, to help you answer all of these questions and more.

We have collaborated with Sports Injury Predictor, whose massive NFL injury database provides us all the important details that are hard to find on the Internet. I see orthopedic and elite athletes during the day, and enjoy discussing and analyzing NFL players’ injuries at night and on the weekends! As an avid fantasy football player for over 2 decades myself, I know how to translate this into clear advice about whether or not to draft someone, or even start someone on a given week given the information that we know. I can help to cut through the medical mumbo-jumbo and provide a clear understanding of the injury, whether the player will be able to play, and how effective they will be on the field. Its like you have your own cheat sheet!

I’ve made this easy for you this year, you have 2 choices here. Either you purchase the whole draftguide, with over 65 player profiles or you decide you really only want one specific profile, and you buy just that one. Your choice!

You want a SAMPLE of one of the profile’s videos? Well, watch the videos below. Still not convinced? Keep scrolling down and get The Rashaad Penny profile for FREE!

Matthew Stafford injury video profile

Matthew Stafford performance video profile

Well, what are you waiting for? Join us NOW!

Get Draft Guide

Continue Reading

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