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NFL Week 10 Start/Sits

Drew Lannin

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We’ve entered the double digit weeks of the season.  Hard to believe we’re already this far in.  Hopefully, you’re still in a position to make the playoffs in your league.  If not, that’s ok, you can still play the role of spoiler or maybe your league has weekly/season long prizes.  Either way, play hard until the end.

For the first time this season, Patriots D owners will have to be without their most valuable asset.  Although, last week, they and the usually reliable 49ers D both let their owners down, so maybe it’s not the worst thing to be without them.

Byes this week: Broncos, Eagles, Jaguars, Patriots, Texans

QUARTERBACK

Start of the Week:  Kyler Murray vs Bucs: I was pretty surprised by Kyler’s numbers against the usually tough 49ers D last week.  Granted, a lot of it came on one long touchdown to Isabella, Kyler still had a far better game than myself and many others expected.  He gets a much easier matchup this week against a Bucs D that takes “funnel defense” to a whole other level.  Almost nobody can run on them, but everyone can pass on them.

Starts

Jameis Winston vs Cardinals: Coming from the other sideline of the Cardinals vs Bucs, Jameis is always hard for owners to trust.  While it’s likely that Jameis will make multiple, unbelievably terrible mistakes, he still has tremendous upside in a game where nobody will stop anybody.  The only way I see Jameis not putting up points is if he stops himself, which is entirely possible.

Dak Prescott vs Vikings: Recommending a quarterback against the Vikings isn’t something I expected to do this year.  Unfortunately for Vikings fans, their pass D isn’t what it used to be.  The Rhoades are open after years of being closed for Vikings’ opponents.  Look for Dak to continue his dominance this week.

Sits

Matthew Stafford at Bears:  If you’ve read this before, you know that I love Stafford this year.  He was even my start of the week last week, which thankfully was right.  As much as I love Stafford, I don’t particularly love this matchup.  While the Bears offense has somehow been awful enough to hurt their defense through time of possession, the Bears D should be able to shut down Stafford enough for other QBs to be better options this week.

Sam Darnold at Giants:  Well….at least we’ll always have the Cowboys game.  After looking incredible against the Cowboys, Darnold and the Jets have reverted back to the team we’ve come to know for far too long now.  I’m honestly not even sure how they managed to beat the Cowboys considering how bad they’ve looked since.  How bad has Darnold been lately?  Bad enough that the awful Giants D is trending as a waiver add in fantasy apps. Normally the Giants are an incredible matchup for a quarterback, but if we can’t trust Darnold vs the Dolphins, we can’t trust him at all.

Sleeper

Philip Rivers at Oakland: While Rivers has had a far worse year than anyone imagined and Thursday games are hard to predict, there’s still enough to work with here to consider Rivers a viable start.  While 2019 hasn’t been kind to Rivers, he’s starting to put things together.  He missed the end zone last week, despite playing one of his better games of the year, leaving a bit of a misleading points total.   With MGlll and Okung back, Rivers has more time, as well as options to work with.  The Raiders are very generous to opposing quarterbacks, so hopefully they’ll be generous to your point total if you start Rivers.

RUNNING BACK

Start of the Week: Marlon Mack at Dolphins:  Mack has had an interesting pattern going this season.  Starting in week 1 he’s gone double digits every other week, with single digit games in between.  While this would be a double digit week if the pattern continues, likely more important is that he plays the Dolphins this week.  On top of that, the quarterback situation is either Brian Hoyer or a banged up Brissett.  Either one is throwing to a wide receiver corps dealing with injuries as well, so it only makes sense for the Colts to try to use Mack as much as possible this week.

Starts

David Montgomery vs Lions: Previously, I believed in Montgomery due to his increasing workload and he finally did well. Last week against Philadelphia, I didn’t believe in him at all and he ended up having his 2nd big game in a row. At this point, we should just trust starting Montgomery unless your team is very deep and he has a terrible matchup. The Lions are not one of those matchups.  They allow the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, with running backs gaining at least 100 total yards against Detroit in every game this year.

Derrick Henry vs Chiefs: To their credit, the Chiefs run D went from worst in the league, to just one of the worst last week.  After letting every running back against them score seemingly endless points, the Chiefs benefitted from a change in defensive scheme and slowly working injured players back in.  While this is the case, Henry is exactly the type to run all over this team.  My only worry here is if Henry gets game-scripted out too early, due to his lack of work in the passing game.  The Titans tough D and question marks around Mahomes health should help the Titans at the very least keep this game close

Sits

Kenyan Drake at Bucs:  If you expected Drake to not only do well, but have one of the best games of his career against the 49ers in a Thursday night game, I don’t believe you.  Drake finally got to put his talent to use once freed from the ineptitude of Gase in previous years and the tanking of the Dolphins this year.  While he showed that he is likely a great fit for this offense, David Johnson is expected to return this week.  Johnson will become the lead back again, leaving Drake’s workload unknown.  Drake may have use as an emergency flex play, but against the Bucs D who ranks 3rd against RBs and a small amount of snaps, there are many better options out there.  

Devonta Freeman at Saints: Speaking of tough run defenses, the Saints are another team you don’t want to start a running back against unless you have no other choice.  Freeman may still have flex appeal in PPR leagues, but there’s always the problem of Matt Ryan checking down to Hooper constantly rather than Freeman.  If Marcus Lattimore is able to put up another incredible game, then it’s possible Freeman is able to get more receptions, but it isn’t something I would want to bet on this week.

Sleeper

Devin Singletary vs Browns:  Singletary has been a popular name in fantasy circles as a buy-low candidate moving forward around the time of their bye week due to their soft schedule and his efficiency. The past two weeks, he’s delivered, including the best outing of his rookie season in Week 9 against the Redskins. The Bills decided to finally give him the touches he deserved in that game, which hopefully will continue going forward. The Browns defense has allowed opposing running backs to score in three of their past four games.

WIDE RECEIVER

Start of the Week: Christian Kirk at Bucs:   Kirk struggled last week against the 49ers, but that was to be expected.  Two catches for eight yard won’t do much for anyone other than your opponent.  As mentioned above, Tampa Bay is about the definition of a funnel defense.  They rank 3rd against the run, while allowing the most fantasy points to opposing receivers.  Kirk scored at least 15 points in three of his past five games in PPR.  Kirk has yet to reach the end zone, but this week is as good an opportunity as any.

Starts

Jamison Crowder at Giants: Crowder had an even better game against Miami last week than I expected, with eight catches for 83 yards and a touchdown.  The Darnold to Crowder connection seems to be intact and one of the few things working for the Jets.  This is another great matchup for Crowder against a Giants team that allows the fourth most receiving yards to opposing wide receivers.

DeVante Parker vs Colts: Well, here we are again.  Another week, another Dolphins player recommendation.  Before you laugh, Parker has been better than most realize and he should only continue to improve with Preston Williams (ACL) out for the season. Parker has actually scored a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 games.  I had to check that one twice as it didn’t seem real.  Parker has averaged 8 targets a week the past 3 weeks, which as mentioned before should only go up with Williams no longer available.

Sits

Odell Beckham Jr vs Bills: This one hurts as I took Odell in one of my bigger leagues, obviously buying into the hype too much.  Unfortunately, not much of anything outside of Nick Chubb is working for the Browns.  If things weren’t already bad enough, Beckham gets one of the worst matchups this week against a Bills defense led by Tre’Davious White that have only allowed 2 wide receivers to score against them this season.

D.K. Metcalf at 49ers: Over the past two weeks, Metcalf has been on fire with nine catches for 136 yards and three touchdowns. While Metcalf has done even better than most expected, there’s too much working against him this week.  Although his role is yet to be determined, Josh Gordon might make his debut this week.  The matchup against the 49ers is a touch one. Only two receivers have scored against the 49ers since Week 3, leaving Metcalf likely to fall back down to earth this week, despite the otherworldly play of Russell Wilson this season.

Sleeper

Mike Williams at Raiders: The Chargers offense is finally starting to figure things out it seems.  With players returning from holdout and injury, things may finally be as expected for this team.  Regression was expected to hit Mike Williams this year in the touchdown column, but not quite this hard as he’s gone from 10 last year to 0 so far this season.  The Raiders are very generous against the pass, while being underrate vs the run, giving Williams ample opportunity to score for the first time this year.

TIGHT END

Start

Mark Andrews at Bengals

Mike Gesicki vs Colts

Gerald Everett at Steelers

Sit

Jonnu Smith vs Chiefs

Jimmy Graham vs Carolina

Eric Ebron at Dolphins

D/St  

Starts

Ravens at Bengals

Colts at Dolphins

Rams at Steelers

Bills at Browns

Saints vs Falcons

Sits

Panthers at Packers

Vikings at Cowboys

Titans vs Chiefs

Jets vs Giants

49ers vs Seahawks

Drew Lannin is a nutritionist with a Bachelor's in Dietetics from Lincoln, Nebraska. He grew up watching Nebraska football and the Chiefs. He is currently finishing pre-reqs for a Masters in Genetic Counseling. He first started playing fantasy football after recommending Randy Moss to his dad during his rookie year. This lead to him being added as the co-commissioner to his dad's league, which started in 1984. He has been an avid fantasy player ever since, consuming as much data and articles as possible.

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Fantasy

2020 NFL Draft Guide w/ Injury Predictor

Jesse Morse M.D.

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Welcome! We are excited to present The 2020 Injury Draftguide, presented by The Fantasy Doctors and Sports Injury Predictor! This has been compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse and Mike Valverde.

This Draftguide will contain every piece of injury information you need to know about all the key players heading into the 2020 Fantasy Football season. There will be over 65 profiles, one profile for each player. The profiles will be comprised of tons of information to help you make the best decision whether or not you should draft a certain player.

Each profile will have 2 videos breaking down each player, one discussing their injuries, the other their performance and expectations (using PFF data) heading into 2020. Additionally there will be a review of the player’s injury history, the importance of these injuries as it pertains to future injuries, an injury ‘risk score’ (yes!), the player’s 2019 effectiveness (data review), complete player outlook as well as team stats to support the player’s outlook for 2020. Wow, that’s a lot of information for EACH player.

The profiles will help you answer important questions like:

How risky is this player heading into the 2020 NFL Season?

Is (insert player name here) fully recovered from his (insert injury here)?

How much will X injury in 2019 after this player in 2020 (from a Sports Medicine Doctor’s perspective)?

Can you give me a ‘Risk Score’ to compare the players to each other?

Is a certain player ‘Injury Prone?’

How well does this player project in 2020 based on new additions and 2019 performance?

Well guess what? I’m Dr. Jesse Morse, a Board-Certified Sports Medicine Physician, a member of The Fantasy Doctors, and I’ve written an all-inclusive Draftguide, along with some colleagues, to help you answer all of these questions and more.

We have collaborated with Sports Injury Predictor, whose massive NFL injury database provides us all the important details that are hard to find on the Internet. I see orthopedic and elite athletes during the day, and enjoy discussing and analyzing NFL players’ injuries at night and on the weekends! As an avid fantasy football player for over 2 decades myself, I know how to translate this into clear advice about whether or not to draft someone, or even start someone on a given week given the information that we know. I can help to cut through the medical mumbo-jumbo and provide a clear understanding of the injury, whether the player will be able to play, and how effective they will be on the field. Its like you have your own cheat sheet!

I’ve made this easy for you this year, you have 2 choices here. Either you purchase the whole draftguide, with over 65 player profiles or you decide you really only want one specific profile, and you buy just that one. Your choice!

You want a SAMPLE of one of the profile’s videos? Well, watch the videos below. Still not convinced? Keep scrolling down and get The Rashaad Penny profile for FREE!

Matthew Stafford injury video profile

Matthew Stafford performance video profile

Well, what are you waiting for? Join us NOW!

Get Draft Guide

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Fantasy

[FREE] Draft Profile- Rashaad Penny

Jesse Morse M.D.

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Compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse & Mike Valverde

Rashaad Penny

Rashaad Armein Penny just turned 24 years old and was born in Norwalk, California. His older brother Elijhaa is a fullback for the Giants. Rashaad had a very productive senior season at his local high school rushing for 2,004 yards and 41 touchdowns on 216 carries. He also caught 21 passes for 665 yards and another 10 touchdowns. 51 touchdowns is a ridiculous season. He chose to play his college football at FBS San Diego State University over BCS schools Boise State and Colorado State.

His freshman year, 2014, Penny did not get any rushing attempts, finishing the season with only two. In his sophomore year, he played in 14 games, rushing 61 times for 368 yards and 4 touchdowns. He finally started to get more opportunities in his junior year, rushing 135 times for 1,005 yards and 11 touchdowns, adding 15 receptions for 224 yards and 3 more scores.

Finally in his senior year, 2017, Penny rushed 289 times for 2,248 yards, a very impressive 7.8 yards per carry and 23 touchdowns. He also caught 19 passes for 135 yards and 2 more tds.

Penny measured in at 5‘11“ tall and 220 pounds, running a 4.46-second 40-yard dash. The Seattle Seahawks chose Penny at the end of the first round in the 2018 NFL Draft. Penny played in 14 games as a rookie, rushing 85 times for 419 yards and 2 touchdowns. He also caught nine passes for 75 yards as well, missing two games with a knee injury.

Hoping to form a tandem with Chris Carson heading into the 2019 season, Penny was not given as many rushing opportunities as many had hoped. He struggled with injuries, injuring his hamstring in practice ahead of week three, and ended up missing three games as a result. Then, unfortunately, in Week 14, Penny suffered a torn ACL ending his season, discussed here.

Unfortunately, running backs who suffer torn ACL‘s (especially if they do it in the NFL) do not have the best return rate, at least in their first season back. Look at Dalvin Cook‘s 2018 season, and then compare to his 2019 season. Everyone always wants to point out how dominant Adrian Peterson was after his return from his torn ACL. But it is important to note that Peterson is the exception and not the rule.

Most running backs struggle in the first year after tearing the ACL. I think this is a combination of physical and mental. Regaining confidence in this newly built ligament takes time. The knee simply doesn’t respond as well as before the injury.

Some athletes describe a little bit more wiggle or ‘play’ with the new ligament. As good as modern medicine is, the ligament is never as good as the original. It’s not as tight, strong, or as flexible.

With the demands of the ACL in the modern NFL as a running back, often, these athletes struggle with the confidence to be able to cut with the aggressiveness that they will need to be effective. Suffering a torn ACL is not a deathblow to a running back’s career, but there are examples of players that struggled to return to form, including Jamaal Charles (at the end of his career), Darren Sproles, and Bishop Sankey.

The jury is still out on Derrius Guice, and they will be out for Penny as well. While WRs, QBs, and defensive players return to a level similar to their pre-injury effectiveness, RBs often struggle to return to full form.

When the Seattle Seahawks chose Rashaad Penny in the first round of the 2018 NFL Draft, they never thought that their 2017 seventh-round decision, Chris Carson would outperform him. However, that has been the situation. Penny has also struggled with injuries.

Even through difficult times, Penny has been a stable running back. His season total of 370 yards on 65 attempts while averaging 5.26 yards per carry (3rd) and a 2.05 YAC (11th) among 52 running backs with 150 carries or more.

After a Carson fumble and an expanded role in Weeks 12 and 13, Penny would put up 14-129-1 and 15-74-1, but unfortunately, Week 14 put an end to any progressions he was making when he tore his ACL.

Now in 2020, Penny could see the PUP list to start the season. He is only 24-years old, so his injury return time could be less. Even if he does return before Week 1, he will not only have to battle Carson but Carlos Hyde and rookie DeeJay Dallas. Throw in Travis Homer for good measure.

The Seahawks offensive line isn’t much better than it has been over the last few seasons. They will have three new starters. BJ Finney, at the center position, will compete with Joey Hunt. Damien Lewis, a third-round decision out of LSU, will step in for DJ Fluker. Seattle did sign Brandon Shell from the Jets, and he will replace Germain Ifedi. They run a gap-power offense.

Even with Russell Wilson working his magic, the Seahawks like to focus on the run. Whoever has the ball in their hands should be successful. However, there are just too many road bumps in front of Penny to make him a high priority or even a low one when it comes to draft day.

Final Prognosis:

Sports Injury Predictor calculates that Penny has a 53.8% chance of injury in 2020, which translates to missing about one game.

My injury risk for him is significantly higher, a 7 out of 10. Penny may struggle with a lack of burst and confidence in his knee.

Currently being drafted as the RB58, there is a chance that Penny surprises this year, as his backfield mate Chris Carson is also coming back from an equally significant injury, a hip fracture. I (Dr. Morse) would not be surprised if the Seahawks turn to a more passing offense as a result of these injuries.

The ACL plays such a significant role in the lower legs’ mobility and running that so many other issues and injuries can develop as a result of the decreased strength, range of motion, and confidence.

Hamstring injuries, meniscal tears, and MCL sprains are not uncommon as a result of a reconstructed knee. Data demonstrates that Penny is still at an increased risk for a second torn ACL. Up until two years from injury, the data shows that he has a 9% chance of re-tear of his recently repaired/built ligament and a 21% chance of tearing the opposite ACL.

There’s simply too much risk in Penny in 2020 for me (Dr. Morse). I’d much rather roll the dice with names in his range like Antonio Gibson, Chase Edmonds, Darrynton Evans, and Damien Harris. Cross Penny’s name off your draft board, and save yourself the trouble.

At this point (June 22), Penny is the RB56 and 182nd player off the board overall. The translation is that he is an RB5 or basic dart throw. Keep an eye on when or if he can make it back before the start of the season. For the most part, I (Mike) would leave as waiver wire fodder.

Injury Risk: High, 7/10.

Injury Video Link: https://youtu.be/YXPhr8g29kY 

Performance Video Link: https://youtu.be/dR-EogvgAWQ 

Like what you see? GET DRADT GUIDE HERE

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2020 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

Jesse Morse M.D.

Published

on

Welcome! We are excited to present The 2020 Injury Draftguide, presented by The Fantasy Doctors and Sports Injury Predictor! This has been compiled by Dr. Jesse Morse and Mike Valverde.

This Draftguide will contain every piece of injury information you need to know about all the key players heading into the 2020 Fantasy Football season. There will be over 65 profiles, one profile for each player. The profiles will be comprised of tons of information to help you make the best decision whether or not you should draft a certain player.

Each profile will have 2 videos breaking down each player, one discussing their injuries, the other their performance and expectations (using PFF data) heading into 2020. Additionally there will be a review of the player’s injury history, the importance of these injuries as it pertains to future injuries, an injury ‘risk score’ (yes!), the player’s 2019 effectiveness (data review), complete player outlook as well as team stats to support the player’s outlook for 2020. Wow, that’s a lot of information for EACH player.

The profiles will help you answer important questions like:

How risky is this player heading into the 2020 NFL Season?

Is (insert player name here) fully recovered from his (insert injury here)?

How much will X injury in 2019 after this player in 2020 (from a Sports Medicine Doctor’s perspective)?

Can you give me a ‘Risk Score’ to compare the players to each other?

Is a certain player ‘Injury Prone?’

How well does this player project in 2020 based on new additions and 2019 performance?

Well guess what? I’m Dr. Jesse Morse, a Board-Certified Sports Medicine Physician, a member of The Fantasy Doctors, and I’ve written an all-inclusive Draftguide, along with some colleagues, to help you answer all of these questions and more.

We have collaborated with Sports Injury Predictor, whose massive NFL injury database provides us all the important details that are hard to find on the Internet. I see orthopedic and elite athletes during the day, and enjoy discussing and analyzing NFL players’ injuries at night and on the weekends! As an avid fantasy football player for over 2 decades myself, I know how to translate this into clear advice about whether or not to draft someone, or even start someone on a given week given the information that we know. I can help to cut through the medical mumbo-jumbo and provide a clear understanding of the injury, whether the player will be able to play, and how effective they will be on the field. Its like you have your own cheat sheet!

I’ve made this easy for you this year, you have 2 choices here. Either you purchase the whole draftguide, with over 65 player profiles or you decide you really only want one specific profile, and you buy just that one. Your choice!

You want a SAMPLE of one of the profile’s videos? Well, watch the videos below. Still not convinced? Keep scrolling down and get The Rashaad Penny profile for FREE!

Matthew Stafford injury video profile

Matthew Stafford performance video profile

Well, what are you waiting for? Join us NOW!

Get Draft Guide

Continue Reading

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