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Lets Overthink This-Week 6

David Lorenz, PT, DPT

October 21, 2022

Can you believe that this week, week 7, is the mid way point of the fantasy football season? Crazy, but it flies by every year. By this point in the season you should have a pretty good feel for your team. You have your weekly studs, the “set it and forget it” kinda guys. Then you have the supporting cast, followed by the bench players and high upside young players, or handcuffs. Missing some of these players? Well, then DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT! Too often owners become stagnant and refuse to make a deal. The old, “I’ll ride it out with my guys one more week.” Well, how’s that working out? For folks that drafted Kyle Pitts, you finally got some production last week. Will it continue? Nobody knows. Which is an awful situation to be in from a fantasy perspective. In short, with the trade deadline looming in a few weeks, if you feel the need to make a move, then do it. As always, try NOT to overthink it, impossible as that may sound. How did the rest of the teams fare in week 6? Anything to monitor this upcoming week 7? Let’s dive in.

Commanders 12, Bears 7

Commanders top performer(s): A changing of the guard in Washington. News dropped a few hours before gametime that Brian Robinson Jr, the rookie RB from Alabama, who somehow got shot through the knee in the preseason and avoided structural damage, was going to be RB1. First off, his story is absolutely incredible. If you aren’t rooting for this kid you must have a heart the size of the Grinch (before it grew). Amazing storyline. Plus, he looked damn good running the ball. Finished with 17 carries for 60 yards and found the endzone in a game that didn’t offer too many exciting moments. In a game where Carson Wentz didn’t break 100 yards passing, Robinson was the star here. Word is Wentz fractured a finger on his throwing hand, and is going to see a specialist in the next few days. This is something to monitor. While some may think a fractured finger is nothing, it could be more complicated than that. He could have additional damage to various structures of the finger, kind of like Russell Wilson last year. If Wentz were to miss time, it would be Taylor Heinicke as the next man up. Bears top performer(s): Man, I really thought the Bears offense was going to show up in this one. Facing a pretty soft Washington defense, they still struggled to execute and finish drives. Darnell Mooney continues to develop stronger chemistry by the week with Justin Fields, but still belongs on fantasy benches. As for the fantasy star of the game for Chicago, I’m going with Justin Fields. With bye weeks beginning this week, Fields could offer some upside for folks in need of a replacement. Passed for almost 200 yards in this one and gained an additional 88 yards rushing. If he could limit turnovers & get more production from his skill players, Fields’ ceiling would elevate significantly.

Falcons 28, 49ers 14

Falcons top performer(s): Marcus Mariota continues to offer decent fantasy value due to his abilities as a runner. He passed for under 150 yards, but was efficient and threw for 2 TDs while also rushing for one. He is a strong streaming candidate for those in need of QB production with some high level options (i.e.  Hurts, Josh Allen) on a bye. Caleb Huntley and Tyler Allgeier split the RB carries pretty evenly, which is maddening from a fantasy perspective. Both belong on benches for now. 49ers top performer(s): Absolute DUD from the 49ers in this one. Somehow they only managed 50 yards rushing as a TEAM! Not a very good formula to win ball games. Jeff Wilson Jr was a huge disappointment for fantasy managers everywhere, myself included. However, Brandon Aiyuk had a really nice game scoring twice, and George Kittle had 8 catches for over 80 yards. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come with Kittle. Keep rolling with Kittle, especially because there are probably not many better options available.

Patriots 38, Browns 15

Patriots top performer(s): If you have kept up with these weekly columns, then you probably started Rhamondre Stevenson. Was very high on him this week and he delivered with over 70 yards and 2 scores. Now, will the production continue once Damien Harris returns from injury? Maybe. Maybe not. But don't overthink this. Stevenson has earned the spot in your lineup each week. Browns top performer(s): Amari Cooper continues to produce in Cleveland, even if it is a garbage time score. He is firmly in the WR2 tier and does not seem to be slowing down any time soon. Chubb was disappointing, but are you really thinking of benching him? Probably not. Don't even think about that for a second.

Jets 27, Packers 10

Jets top performer(s): Breece Hall has officially ARRIVED. I was hyping him up in this spot last week, but now he is firmly entrenched as a low end RB1/high end RB2, and his stock continues to rise. Other than Michael Carter and Breece Hall, all other Jets are left on benches for now. Until we see more from Zach Wilson, that is. This offense can continue to surprise some teams. Packers top performer(s): Robert Tonyan was the fantasy star in this one, which is never a great sign for the Packers. The entire offense just seems, well, off. I know I preached patience before, but I'm officially worried about this team. It's halfway through the fantasy football season and their production has not improved as much as we all thought it would. The running game looks stagnant as well. Outside of Tonyan as a streaming candidate, and Aaron Jones, I'm not seeing many weekly fantasy starters.

Colts 34, Jaguars 27

Colts top performer(s): The return of Matty Ice!! This is the game we all were waiting for out of Ryan and the Colts offense. Playing without JT again Ryan topped 300 yards, and the primary beneficiaries were Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce. I like Ryan as a bye week fill in, especially this week against a weak Titans secondary. Fire up Pittman, and even Pierce, as well. Goes without saying, but if JT is back, you play him. Do not even try to overthink that one. Jags top performer(s): One thing that is apparent in the last few weeks from the Jags is Travis Etienne's ascension in playing time. Last couple games he has pretty much evenly split work with James Robinson. I see Etienne's role continuing to grow. If you can trade for him, try to do it now.

Vikings 24, Dolphins 16

Vikings top performer(s): Big games from Dalvin Cook, whose second half TD run pretty much sealed the win for the Vikings, as well as Justin Jefferson. Shame that they're on a bye this week, and some fantasy owners will be scrambling to replace their production. The Vikings offense will continue to be elite from a fantasy perspective when they return from the bye. Dolphins top performer(s): Tough spot for the Dolphins in this one, who were forced to start Skylar Thompson again, until Teddy Bridgewater was able to come back into the game. Big game from Tyreek Hill. I mentioned to never bench Hill, regardless of who is playing QB, and this is exactly why. Still had 12 catches for 177 yards. Unreal. Must start, and do not even think about it. Set it and forget it. All the cliche sayings. You get it.

Bengals 30, Saints 26

Bengals top performer(s): The game all of those who picked Jamar Chase with a first round pick were waiting for. Huge stat line from Chase in this one, and this is a sign of things to come. I think. Or, at least, I hope. The Bengals offense is fun to watch when they're rolling. Another elite offense from a fantasy perspective with multiple guys as weekly plays. Saints top performer(s): Tough loss for the Saints in this one, who now have the Cardinals on a short week. They are banged up with injuries at just about every position. Until MT and Jarvis Landry come back, I understand those who want to play Trequan Smith and Marquez Callaway, but beware of some boom or bust production. Alvin Kamara seems to be back to his normal self. If you were able to buy low on him a few weeks back, good job. Continue to start him with confidence.

Giants 24, Ravens 20

Giants top performer(s): Not much production fantasy-wise from the Giants in this one, outside of Saquon Barkley. Sound familiar? Will probably be this way all season long. Start Barkley. If you need a bye week replacement, Daniel Jones offers a relatively safe floor. Ravens top performer(s): Man, the Ravens really just cannot finish games. They had this one in the bag before the two late turnovers and costly mistakes. Mark Andrews had another big game. Word is JK Dobbins' knee "tightened up" due to the absolutely awful turf at Metlife stadium. This is something significant to monitor. Especially after undergoing the ACL reconstruction last summer/early fall. If he were to be limited, or even miss games, Kenyan Drake would be next in line. The Browns run defense has been pretty terrible, but we all know it's buyer beware with Drake.

Steelers 20, Buccaneers 18

Steelers top performer(s): Steelers stole a win! Big win for them that they desperately needed. Chase Claypool was the star in this one for Pittsburgh. As I stated last week, it was expected that Najee would struggle in this one. He may be better in future weeks, but I'm not overly optimistic about the Steelers offense the rest of the season. Bucs top performer(s): Another blah performance from Tampa in this one. Tom Brady had a decent game I guess, but no one really deserves the star of the game. Better days are ahead for this offense, keep staying patient. Do it! Try not to overthink it. They have playmakers.

Rams 24, Panthers 10

Rams top performer(s): Cooper Kupp continues to have solid games, and he offers probably the safest floor in all of fantasy football. Darrell Henderson is RB1 now that Cam Akers is likely to be traded or released. Allen Robinson also had a good game, but his opportunities will continue to be sporadic. Panthers top performer(s): CMC is the Carolina Panthers offense. He's pretty much all they got. I like DJ Moore's talent, but he simply does not have a QB that can consistently get him the ball. CMC is the ONLY player even worth considering putting in lineups on a weekly basis. I do not see this changing this season either.

Seahawks 19, Cardinals 9

Seahawks top performer(s): Kenneth Walker II, welcome to the rookie RB party. First it was Dameon Pierce, then Breece Hall, and now Walker. Now, if you have followed TFD, we recommended stashing Walker due to Penny's injury history. Hopefully you were patient and held onto him. Unlike me, who dropped him after about week 3. Do not be like me. Be better. Cardinals top performer(s): Zach Ertz continues to produce for Arizona. Curious to see if his volume stays at this level now that Nuk (Deandre Hopkins) is back. Either way, you're playing Ertz due to lack of other options. Kyler Murray also had 100 yards rushing, but he needs to continue to improve his passing. Losing Hollywood Brown hurts, but they still have Rondale Moore and the recently added Robbie Anderson.

Bills 24, Chiefs 20

Bills top performer(s): Man, what a game this was in KC. Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs continue to provide weekly highlights that leave us mind-blown. Play that Allen hurdle on a loop for eternity. Devin Singletary continues to fly under the radar as well. Chiefs top performer(s): Tough loss for KC in this one. Juju Smith-Schuster had a long TD, as Mahomes continues to spread the ball around fairly evenly. Who is the true RB1? The scale seems to be tipping towards Jerick McKinnon at the moment. I would stash him.

Eagles 26, Cowboys 17

Eagles top performer(s): The Eagles offense continues to roll. What makes this offense so dangerous is the versatility. They can beat you through the air or the ground. Playmakers all over the field. AJ Brown and Miles Sanders both scored. Remember when Sanders did not score a TD last year? He's having a huge bounce back season, and it is perfect timing for him, in a contract year. Lots of teams are going to be hurting missing their Eagles players this week. Cowboys top performer(s): The big performance in this game from the Cowboys was Zeke. He continued his high level play against the Eagles. Now, Dak returns. Elevates the fantasy prospects of this entire team tremendously. If Michael Gallup is sitting on the waiver wire, he is a fine speculative add.

Chargers 19, Broncos 16

Chargers top performer(s): Austin Ekeler. Will he be the RB1 when it is all said and done? He very well could be, and continues his fantasy dominance. Down game from Mike Williams, but do not bench him. Seriously, do not think about it. Broncos top performer(s): Hard to choose a star when your leading rusher only totals 66 yards and your leading receiver totals 54 yards. Broncos offense looks absolutely cold. Russ is banged up, which does not help matters at all. They won't sit Russ, even though they really should. Until the offense shows more, the only player worth starting with regularity is Courtland Sutton. So, with that being said, who do we like Thursday night? Well I like the Cardinals to win, and I think BIG performances are in store for Nuk, Rondale Moore, and Zach Ertz. For the Saints, I would have difficulty starting anyone outside of Kamara, and maybe throw a dart and hope for a score from Taysom Hill.


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