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Lets Overthink This-Week 4

David Lorenz, PT, DPT

October 5, 2022

Another week in the books in this bizarre 2022 fantasy football season. 4 weeks in and some of you are feeling great about your team, while others are wondering why in the world they drafted Kyle Pitts so early. Or, you may be feeling lukewarm about your team. Things are going okay, but they could be better, and certainly could be much worse. You're waiting on some big time performances from players you drafted early. Well, those performances may be coming. However, they may not be as well. It's important to not completely overreact to the first month of the season, but these weeks are moving along quickly (just like they always seem to do). The lesson? If you sense that your team needs an improvement or two, via trades, waiver wire, etc, you need to pounce. Got a guy you really want to acquire in a trade? Go for it. Next thing you know, that player has a huge week, and their owner is much less inclined to offer him up. Fantasy football is a funny game. You need to have some luck in order to avoid the injury bug, but, we here at TFD, have helped most of you minimize that injury risk with our other content. You also need to play the game with a week to week mindset, while also juggling and planning for the next few weeks. In short, you should never be comfortable, and always looking for ways to improve. With all of that being said, let's get to our week 4 recap, and let's discuss some of the best (and worst) fantasy performances from the week that was. LET’S OVERTHINK THIS. Week 4 Results:

Bengals 27, Dolphins 15

Bengals top performer(s): Remember the panic that the whole world seemed to have after the Bengals started 0-2? Well, after 2 straight wins, Cincinnati is feeling much better about their postseason chances. Protecting Joe Burrow is a great start. Tee Higgins was the main fantasy star in this one. Joe Mixon also scored a TD (thanks to his offensive line pushing him in), but averaged just 2.5 YPC against the stout Miami front. I like the Bengals offense to continue to do well from a fantasy perspective for the weeks to come. Dolphins top performer(s): Tyreek Hill had another productive day and continues to put up big numbers in a Dolphins uniform. The offense would have done better, if not for the whole Tua debacle. Simply put, the NFL, the Dolphins, and anyone else that was spinning this as a "back injury" thinks we are stupid. Ever have your back lock up on you? Yeah, me too. And it doesn't make you limply fall to the ground like Tua did. When your back locks up, you can't move, and you definitely do not go full Gumby. Just a total failure on the league and the Dolphins. 2 concussions in the span of 5 days is scary stuff. Really hope Tua can bounce back in a few weeks. For now, it's Teddy Bridgewater time. While this lessens fantasy expectations, the Dolphins offense will still be okay.

Vikings 28, Saints 25

Vikings top performer(s): Justin Jefferson had a monster game. Over 100 yards and a rushing TD on an end-around. Cook was efficient running the ball as well. Against a tough New Orleans defense, the Vikings offense delivered. Saints top performer(s): Chris Olave stepped up in a big way as WR1 for New Orleans in an otherwise lackluster performance from the offense. He’s working his way into a weekly fantasy lock.

Falcons 23, Browns 20

Falcons top performer(s): Cordarrelle Patterson had another nice fantasy showing. At what price? He’s now on IR, and will miss the next 4 games. If Tyler Allgeier is available, go swipe him. I’m also officially worried about Kyle Pitts. One catch?!? Browns top performer(s): Nick Chubb continues the hot start to this season. Looks like he is contending for THE RB1 belt.

Cowboys 25, Commanders 10

Cowboys top performer(s): Ceedee Lamb came up big for a second week in a row for the Cowboys. Zeke only averaged 2.6 YPC, but the entire team had a tough time getting the ground game working against a strong Washington defensive front. Commanders top performer(s): One of those “I gotta pick someone” scenarios here, so I’ll go with Jahan Dotson, who scored the lone TD. Not sure you can trust anyone on this offense in your lineup to produce constantly, especially with Dotson hurt, and likely missing the next couple of games.

Seahawks 48, Lions 45

Seahawks top performer(s): How about the entire offense? Seriously. Geno Smith looked like vintage Geno from WVU, Rashaad Penny looked great, as did DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Start every one you can against the Lions defense until further notice. Lions top performer(s): Jared Goff, Jamaal Williams, and TJ Hockenson. Even throw in Josh Reynolds. This game was a shootout, and produced a multitude of big time fantasy performances. Go figure.

Titans 24, Colts 17

Titans top performer(s): The return of King Henry. The performance we all were waiting for. Lineup lock, as always. Colts top performer(s): Colts, we need to have a talk. What in the world is going on in Indy? The offensive line has been a disappointment, and to be fair, the whole offense has been bad. Will they turn it around on a short week in Denver? I’m not optimistic. Mo Allie-Cox had 2 TDs.

Giants 20, Bears 12

Giants top performer(s): Saquon is back. We here at TFD were high on Saquon entering the new season under the new regime, and boy has he delivered. Looks like he is contending to be THE RB1 for the season. Bears top performer(s): Another poor performance from the Chicago offense. Was good to see Darnell Mooney have close to 100 yards. As Forrest Gump said, “that’s all I have to say about that.”

Eagles 29, Jaguars 21

Eagles top performer(s): The first few weeks in this space has been Jalen Hurts, but now it’s Miles Sanders. A great performance from the rushing attack and the offensive line from Philly as they break over 200 yards on the ground. AJ Brown had close to 100 yards as well. Jaguars top performer(s): Jamal Agnew had 2 TDs receiving, just when we were getting accustomed to seeing Christian Kirk find the end zone regularly.

Jets 24, Steelers 20

Jets top performer(s): I’m going with Breece Hall and Corey Davis, both of whom found the end zone in their win against the Steelers. I think Zach Wilson elevates the fantasy prospects of all the Jets players, and I would hang on to Elijah Moore due to the chemistry Moore and Wilson showed last year. Steelers top performer(s): George Pickens had a nice day with over 100 yards receiving. The rushing attack continues to look mediocre at best. I do think Pickens’ ceiling is elevated now that the QB switch has been made to Kenny Pickett. Not overly optimistic about their rest of season outlook however, beginning with a tough stretch of defenses here in October.

Bills 23, Ravens 20

Bills top performer(s): Josh Allen had a vintage Josh Allen performance in the comeback win. Decent job passing dealing with the elements, had a rushing TD, and got away with a win. Diggs, Allen, Singletary remain lineup locks for this offense. What in the world happened to Gabe Davis?? Ravens top performer(s): I’m giving this to JK Dobbins. Returning from last year's gruesome knee injury in which he sustained a torn ACL and LCL, Dobbins looked good in this one rushing for a TD and catching one as well. If I have him, I’m playing him weekly.

Chargers 34, Texans 24

Chargers top performer(s): After a down week from this offense, it was nice to see them get back on track. Herbert looked better, Mike Williams had another great week being WR1 while Keenan Allen works his way back from a hamstring, and Ekeler had 2 TDs. A sigh of relief for all Chargers owners out there. Texans top performer(s): This offense will struggle all year, but Dameon Pierce seems to be the real deal at RB. That long TD run showed his straight away speed, and I see Pierce being a RB2 the rest of the season. Brandin Cooks will be playable as well as a mid-tier flex.

Cardinals 26, Panthers 16

Cardinals top performer(s): Kyler Murray and Hollywood Brown have displayed a strong connection this first month of the season. Will that continue when DHop comes back after week 6? Will be interesting to see. Tough matchup this week against the Philly defense as well. Panthers top performer(s): This offense is terrible. Baker looks absolutely lost, and I am not sure if this gets better the rest of the season. The positive? CMC got a ton of work in the pass game and had a receiving TD. The only Panther worth locking in lineups as of now.

Packers 27, Patriots 24

Packers top performer(s): After a worst-case scenario first half, Rodgers and the offense really did well in the second half. Romeo Doubs, who I’m high on (as stated in previous weeks), found the end zone again and Allen Lazard had over 100 yards receiving. This WR corps will be just fine. Patriots top performer(s): Tough situation for Bailey Zappe to be thrown in, but he performed pretty well with the circumstances. Both Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson looked good, and I expect them to lean on both of them the next few weeks.

Raiders 32, Broncos 23

Raiders top performer(s): Josh Jacobs breakout game! Through the first month, Jacobs looks like a steal in drafts. Granted, he does not have much competition for volume, but he is ensuring it stays that way. Top line RB2 so far. Broncos top performer(s): Broncos offense continues to struggle, and it only gets tougher losing Javonte Williams for the year with a torn ACL. Melvin Gordon, Mike Boone, and Latavius Murray SZN it is. Jerry Jeudy scored a TD, so I’ll give the performance of the game for the Broncos to him.

Chiefs 41, Buccaneers 31

Chiefs top performer(s): A month into the season if I told you CEH would be outsourcing JT in fantasy you would have called me absolutely crazy. Or dumb. Or both. Yet, here we are. Mahomes, CEH, and Travis Kelce have this offense rolling week in and week out. Keep them all plugged in your lineup without hesitation. Bucs top performer(s): Mike Evans and Leonard Fournette had nice games, and Brady ended up with a solid fantasy performance, but they were playing catch up most of the game. I still like the Bucs’ players week in and week out.

49ers 24, Rams 9

49ers top performer(s): Deebo Samuel had that crazy catch and TD run. If you haven’t seen the highlight, go watch it now. The guy is a YAC monster. Jeff Wilson Jr also had a nice TD run where he displayed great burst. 49ers top performer(s): Cooper Kupp is a freak. Somehow he is getting more targets and volume than he did last year in his record setting campaign. Looks like he is well on that track this year again, but the rest of the Rams offense seems off.

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